Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models     

Shan He  Srivatsan V. Raghavan  Ngoc Son Nguyen  Shie‐Yui Liong 《水文研究》2013,27(11):1560-1571

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

GIS专业"空间数据库"课程教学内容研究与实践     

闫金凤 《测绘工程》2010,19(6):75-78

随着空间数据库技术的飞速发展,其在众多学科领域的重要性日益突出。地理信息系统专业迫切需要进行＂空间数据＂库课程体系、教学内容和实验内容等方面的教学改革。结合教学实际需求,总结多年的教学经验,将理论与实践相结合进行＂空间数据库＂课程教学内容研究,并简述具体的实施过程。  相似文献   

基于稀少控制点的SPOT5卫星立体条带影像的生产应用研究     

郑福海  王铁军  袁晓宏 《测绘软科学研究》2010,(1):84-87

随着相关技术的发展，高分辨率卫星遥感影像在测绘产品生产中的应用越来越广泛和深入。本文主要通过西部无图区测图的应用实践，讨论利用有理多项式方法、基于稀少控制点纠正的SPOT5HRS立体条带影像的测图生产情况，并对DLG、DEM等产品进行精度检测；同时与传统的航摄方法进行对比，分析其生产效率等情况。  相似文献   

青海省主体功能区规划研究     

孙厚科  杨鸿海  王苑 《地理空间信息》2010,8(4):32-34

主体功能区规划是优化国土开发格局,推动区域协调发展的一项重大战略决策。根据《国务院关于编制主体功能区规划的意见》和国家《省级主体功能区划分技术规程》的总体要求,利用遥感、地理信息系统等空间分析技术和手段,以及专家咨询等方法,对全省的国土空间进行综合分析评价,提出主体功能区试划方案,进而为编制全省主体功能区规划奠定科学基础。  相似文献   

Application of participatory principles to investigation of the natural world: An example from Chile     

Sarah Schumann 《Marine Policy》2010

Participatory research in environmental and natural resources-related fields is premised on many of the same notions that underlie participatory processes in decision making. This study examines one instance of participatory research to assess the extent to which the documented benefits of participatory decision-making hold up in the context of research. A survey of Chilean shell-fishers engaged in research with marine biologists assesses the relationships between four variables: fishers’ participation in research, fishers’ opinions of biologists, fishers’ trust in biologists, and fishers’ acquisition of knowledge from biologists. Results illuminate the multidimensionality of these variables and suggest that complex interrelationships between them make the benefits of participatory research more nuanced than those reported for participatory decision-making. For instance, participatory research may provide low benefits when participatory research outcomes differ little from those produced solely by scientists. In addition, high-cost scenarios may result when outcomes of participatory research are inferior to those produced solely by scientists. A third downside may result when participation leads participants to increase their deference to scientific knowledge, thereby defeating the corroborative purpose of their participation. A fourth effect may occur when increased trust by in scientists results from participation, decreasing participants’ perceived need to take part in research.  相似文献   

华北汛期降水长期变化规律研究新进展          下载免费PDF全文

刘海文  袁帅  杨朝虹  武凯军  朱玉祥  林一骅 《大气科学学报》2022,45(5):700-712

华北汛期降水的年代际减少,一直是气候学领域关心的重要课题之一。本文扼要回顾了华北汛期旱涝研究的最新代表性成果,主要包括华北汛期起讫的客观识别、华北汛期降水多时间尺度的变化特征、华北汛期降水变化与大气遥相关型的关系,以及华北汛期降水量增多趋势的停滞等。在此基础之上,归纳和总结了该领域需要继续深入研究的问题,如：华北汛期起讫时间的统一性;在华北汛期降水年代际变少的归因分析中,其年际振荡成分衰减的物理原因;华北汛期降水年代际变多趋势停滞的原因;华北汛期降水何时恢复增多等科学问题。  相似文献   

Numerical study of the meridional overturning circulation with “mixing hotspots” in the Pacific Ocean     

Takahiro Endoh  Toshiyuki Hibiya 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(3):259-266

Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys.  相似文献   

琼州海峡岸礁潮间带生物   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

王丽荣  陈锐球  赵焕庭 《台湾海峡》2003,22(3):286-294

本文记录了2000年7月琼州海峡西口雷州半岛灯楼角珊瑚岸礁调查采集的25种造礁石珊瑚，以及栖息于湖间带的7类39科88种底栖生物，其大多数种类属于印度-西太平洋热带区系。优势类群是软体动物和节肢动物。珊瑚礁段底栖生物的平均生物量、栖息密度和多样性值分别为1173．30g／m^2，790．0个／m^2和5．69，由于造礁石珊瑚的存在为其他底栖生物提供了良好的生态环境，从而丰富了本区底栖生物的种类组成、数量、分布和群落结构。  相似文献   

弯睾鲫吸虫[Carassotrema flecterotestis(Zhukov,1971)comb.nov.]及其毛蚴发育观察     

于水舟  彭文峰  刘升发 《台湾海峡》2005,24(1):97-103

本文对取自台湾海峡棱鮻 (Lizacarinatus)消化道的弯睾软穴吸虫 (HapalotremaflecterotestisZhukov, 1971)进行重新描述,并对其毛蚴的体外发育进行观察.根据Yamaguti(1971)区分单孔科 (Haploporidae)和叉盘科 (Waretrematidae)的标准,同意李敏敏(1984)将其从单孔科移出并入叉盘科.在与叉盘科已知属比较后,我们发现该吸虫除睾丸形状外,其他主要特征与鲫吸虫属 (CarassotremaPark, 1938)的相似.因此,我们拟将其作为后者的同物异名,并将该吸虫重新命名为弯睾鲫吸虫 [Caras sotremaflecterotestis(Zhukov, 1971)comb. nov. ].实验结果表明:在室温 7~24℃(均值为 15. 3℃)条件下,其虫卵从单个卵细胞到毛蚴孵出共需 12d.  相似文献   

Natural mortality of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Southern Gulf of St Lawrence     

Sinclair  A. F. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2001,58(1):1-10

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